Monday, October 29, 2007

Dollar hits new lows, oil a new high — but why?

Two new financial records of note today, though neither is much for Americans to brag about.

The U.S. dollar — once the king of currency — continued its downhill slide, hitting new lows against most other currencies as the price of a barrel oil closed in on $94, another high. The dollar today is worth only 95 cents against the Canadian loonie, a low not seen since 1960. As for the euro, it's now worth 44% more than the greenback — $1.44, another record.

And that shiny yellow metal approached a 28-year record high. Gold closed at nearly $793.

Why? The money people seem to agree that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again on Wednesday to try to boost the flagging economy.

Isn't that good news? Not necessarily. What's good for exporters may end up fueling inflation across the board.

"The Fed faces a quandary as they need to ease (rates) in order to get the economy going, but a weaker dollar, while good for US exports, does raise the concern that inflation will rise,” Gerald Lucas, senior investment adviser at Deutsche Bank, told the Financial Times.

Looking at the big economic picture, USA TODAY's Barbara Hagenbaugh and Barbara Hansen write that a slowdown is at hand, but it's not clear how deep it might go or how long it might last.

The analyzers at Briefing.com aren't so gloomy, however:

Granted the weak dollar is contributing to the rise in oil prices, but thus far, the consumer has been pretty impervious to the high prices thanks to rising personal incomes that are a byproduct of a tight labor market.

There are lingering concerns, of course, that rising oil prices will soon undercut the consumer given the housing sector recession, but those concerns were tabled on Monday as the stock market extended recent gains with oil prices topping $93 per barrel.

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