Monday, March 17, 2008

Dollar at new low; remains vulnerable

The dollar remained vulnerable, and recorded fresh all-time low against the euro for the fourth day in a row.



Adding to the pressure on the greenback, the consumer confidence in US recorded a drop. The University of Michigan/Reuters index tracking consumer sentiment dipped to 70.5 in March from 70.8 in February.



In a separate report, the US Labor Department said the consumer price index was flat in February against the expectations of a 0.2 % increase.



On Thursday, US Commerce department reported a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent fall in the Retail Sales in February.



Another release by the US Labor Department showed the initial claims for state unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 353,000 in the week ended March 8. The four-week average of initial claims fell slightly in the latest week, down by 1,250 to 358,500.



The doubts about the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's efforts also added pressure in to the greenback. Last day, the Federal Reserve had announced new steps to boost liquidity in the banking system.



Stronger-than-expected economic data from the Euro-zone, according to which industrial production posted a 0.9% rise in January and 3.8% rise annually, propped up the European currency to new highs against the Dollar.



In a surprise move, the Fed said it would increase the size of its emergency auctions by $40 billion, which means providing $100 billion to primary dealers in US Treasury debt. It also would start a series of term repurchase transactions with the primary dealers that trade securities directly with the Fed, expected to be worth a total of $100 billion.



The Beige Book survey of the Fed reported softening or weakening in the pace of business activity in 8 of the 12 Fed regional districts; and subdued, slow or modest growth in others, confirming the slowdown in US economy since the start of the year.



Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had given a grim assessment of the U.S. housing sector, adding to mounting fears of recession.

The Fed had lowered its 2008 growth forecast to 1.3 % - 2 %, from a forecast of 1.8 % - 2.5 % in November.

In a grave effort to prevent a global market meltdown in financial markets and a possible recession in the US economy, the Fed had lowered its lending rate by 75 basis points to 3.50% - a rare move between formal meetings of the central bank's policymakers in January; and again lowered the rate to 3 percent January 30th. The 75 basis point has been the largest cut in the fed funds rate since 1990.

No comments: